Should we expect an electric car boom?
The situation on the market of electric vehicles in recent years can not be described as boring. From a rapid rise by 65% from 2017 to 2018, then a slowdown last year, to a decline by 25% in the first quarter of 2020. Is the electric car boom expected by many people to be cancelled?
What is going on?
The decline should not distort the perception of the overall trend. The changes come against the backdrop of a general downturn on the car market. Moreover, the drop in sales of new cars with internal combustion engines is much more noticeable. That is, even sagging, electric cars are gradually increasing their share in comparison with less environmentally friendly vehicles.
In addition, a decline is observed in global data, there are significant differences in the context of regions. So, if in the USA in 2019 sales of electric vehicles decreased by 12%, in China they remained at the same level, and in Europe they even grew by 44%.
This year, these differences have been preserved. Influenced by COVID-19 in the first quarter of 2020, the US electric vehicle market fell by 33% in the US and 57% in China. In Europe, sales continued to grow - plus 25% compared to the up-to-date quarter of last year.
Despite the slowdown, experts are planning growth in the coming years. There are many positive factors to be optimistic.
Such factors as the development of infrastructure, the creation of favorable conditions by regulators, the spread of sharing services and delivery services have a positive effect on the spread of ecological transport.
Major battery improvements, which will affect the cost of machines are expected in the next 3 years. Now its price is up to a third of the cost of the entire car.
Due to changes in the chemical composition of batteries, capacity, size, performance will be increased. It is expected that by 2025 the distance of travel without recharging will be 500-600 km.
Global auto giants have announced more than 400 new models of electric vehicles in three recent years. All popular ICE vehicles are expected to have alternative electric versions.
World leaders
Despite the fact that Tesla cars have become a symbol of the new era of electric transport, their leadership is not universal.
Yes, all over the world the position of Elon Musk's company is dominant. Last year, Tesla sold 367,820 vehicles, an undeniable record. BID's Chinese concert comes second in terms of production. The name of this company is not so widely known all over the world. At the same time, in 2019 BID sold almost 230 thousand cars and is the absolute leader in its country.
In general, in the top 20 companies producing electric cars 10 cars are from China.
The top 20 players account for 67% of all global sales.
Leaders in countries and regions
Top 5 electric cars in the USA (according to the results of 2019)
The American Tesla is the undoubted leader in sales at home with a share of 78%. The most popular Model 3 is in the leading position simply by a huge margin - 155 thousand against 18.5 thousand of the second-placed Model X. Chevrolet Bolt sold at about the same level last year.
- Tesla Model 3 — 154 836
- Tesla Model X — 18 500
- Chevrolet Bolt — 16 418
- Tesla Model S — 13 300
- Nissan Leaf — 12 365
Top 5 electric cars in China
Naturally, China is dominated by the “Chinese”. The three largest manufacturers: BYD (19%), BAIC (14%) and SAIC (12%) control almost half (45%) of the market.
The most popular models (according to sales in 2019)
- BAIC EU-Series — 111 047
- BYD Yuan — 67 839
- SAIC Baojun E-series EV — 60 050
- Chery eQ EV — 39 401
- BYD Tang PHEV — 34 084
Top 5 electric cars in Europe
Europe accounts for more than half of all sales of hybrids and electric vehicles - 57% of the global market. In 2019, 1.26 million new cars were sold across Europe.
Top selling models in 2019
- Tesla Model 3 — 95 247
- Renault Zoe — 47 488
- Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV — 34 597
- Nissan Leaf — 33 155
- BMW i3 — 32 828
It is curious that this year there was a change of leader. Renault Zoe became the most popular in the first six months of 2020.
Top 5 electric cars in Russia
Since the data relate to sales of new cars, the statistics for Russia against the background of other regions looks very modest. Over the past year, a total of 353 new cars were sold across the country.
- Jaguar I-Pace 131
- Nissan Leaf — 131
- Tesla Model X — 46
- Tesla Model S — 22
- Tesla Model 3 — 13
The plans of the giants
Major car manufacturers in Europe, America and Asia have already announced plans to phase out the production of cars with internal combustion engines. And not only cars, but also trucks. Thus, Volkswagen Group announced a complete rejection of internal combustion engines in 2050, Toyota plans to abandon internal combustion engines by 2030, Ford by 2035.
General Motors in 2023 intends to abandon the production of hybrid cars, Hyundai-Kia will reduce to a quarter of total production and will reduce the share of hybrids by 2025.
In addition to auto giants, major players in other sectors also influence the development of the industry.
E-commerce leader Amazon last year placed an order for 100,000 electric trucks for its fleet in the US and Europe.
The largest delivery service DHL purchased 63 new electric vans in 2019. The company also said that it will use electric transport to provide 70% of supplies by 2025, and by 2050 to bring the number to 100%.
IKEA announced that in New York by the end of 2020, all goods will be delivered by electric vehicles.
What is next?
Despite the different speed of processes in different regions, the trend is generally obvious. Electric vehicles are the future. Not in all countries, in the near future, electric transport will be equal in number to combustible fuel vehicles. But in the sales structure of new cars, the share of electric cars will grow. And for the enterprises of the automotive industry as a whole, this has already become a priority direction of development and will continue to remain so.
Answering the question posed in the title — is it worth expecting a boom in electric vehicles, we can say that in some countries it has already happened, and somewhere it is still ahead, it's only a matter of time.