Rejection of hydrocarbon fuels and the transition to new types and how it changes the economy
Economic feasibility is not always the main criterion for making decisions, including those affecting the economy. The energy industry is a prime example of this.
The trend observed in recent years to the abandonment of hydrocarbons and increase in the use of alternative sources - this is not about the money. Solution of the problems of global climate change is the basis of the energy policy in many countries.
Driven by the noble goals of saving the planet, the trend poses a threat to the energy security in some countries. First of all, this concerns the largest producers of oil, gas and coal, sitting “on the needle”, in particular Russia.
On the other hand, these changes create new opportunities to make good money and create space for new leaders, both among states and corporations, who will be able to integrate into the eco-agenda successfully.
Hydrogen boom?
Today we can observe large-scale changes in the structure of primary energy consumption, an increase in demand for natural gas, the development of the liquefied natural gas market, the growing popularity of renewable energy sources, and the spread of electric transport.
Hydrogen becomes the main favourite for the future. Compared to hydrocarbons, it is more eco-friendly. The use of H2 does not release CO2 into the atmosphere. There is also an economic benefit - the use of hydrogen, a renewable energy source, reduces the need for fossil fuels, most often imported.
All shades of hydrogen
It is worth distinguishing between “gray” or “dirty” and “green” hydrogen. Gray is the cheapest and most abundant hydrogen in the world. Its production from gas is accompanied by CO2 emissions.
"Green" is less harmful, if not completely safe for the climate. True, the “greener” the hydrogen, the more expensive its production.
Among green technologies, for example, “turquoise” and “yellow” hydrogen are also distinguished. So-called turquoise hydrogen, like grey, is produced from gas, but with soot rather than carbon dioxide as a by-product. The extraction of yellow hydrogen is also not accompanied by the emission of CO2, as it is produced by electrolysis from water.
Speaking about long-term plans for the development of hydrogen energy, first of all, they mean, of course, green technologies.
European projects
Hydrogen has already become commonplace in the energy policies of developed countries. The world is slowly but gradually moving to a new fuel.
The transition speed varies from country to country. Experts' forecasts also differ. Therefore, the Hydrogen Council (an association of large corporations, which includes BP, Total, Toyota, Shell and others) gives a very optimistic estimate: in 2050, the share of hydrogen in energy consumption in the world will be 18%. Other experts talk about the share of consumption up to 19% in the UK, US and EU.
Germany has already adopted a national hydrogen strategy and by 2030 may switch part of its gas pipelines to hydrogen. The world's largest hydrogen production plant by electrolysis is already under construction in Germany, and an experiment is underway to replace natural gas in residential heating with hydrogen partially.
The UK is also working on replacing methane with H2 in the gas pipeline network. In the Netherlands and Belgium, they are going to test a hydrogen-powered riverboat and create a refueling system for it. In Austria, the three leading concerns are preparing several joint pilot projects at once, including the use of hydrogen instead of coal in the production of steel.
The first hydrogen trains Coradia iLint operate in Germany (the first electric train has been in operation since September 2018). Electricity is generated in train fuel cells by a chemical reaction between hydrogen and oxygen. Instead of exhaust, water is produced.
Until the end of next year, the non-electrified railway line in the federal state of Lower Saxony is going to abandon diesel locomotives completely and replace them with hydrogen ones. In the coming years, it is planned to use such trains in other regions.
Austria's three largest companies - energy company Verbund AG, oil and gas company OMV and steel company Voestalpine - have decided to accelerate the introduction of hydrogen technologies in the country together. The first cost-effective joint project was implemented in Linz: coal was replaced by hydrogen in steel production.
In Leeds, the UK's third largest city, Northern Gas Networks is preparing a H21 pilot project. Its aim is to transfer heating throughout the city from natural gas, methane, to hydrogen. Offshore wind farms for its production by electrolysis already exist. In addition, water-heating boilers are being developed by a branch of the German Bosch Termotechnik in Worcester, England.
For Northern Gas Networks and other British gas companies, this opens the prospect of repurposing and thus maintaining the existing gas distribution system, which would be unnecessary in the event of heating electrification.
Russia’s plans
In connection with the global trend towards abandoning hydrocarbon energy, Russia plans to produce and export hydrogen. The Ministry of Energy has developed and sent to the government a roadmap for the development of hydrogen energy in Russia for 2020-2024.
According to this document, Gazprom and Rosatom will become the first producers of hydrogen. In 2021, Gazprom is to develop and test a methane-hydrogen gas turbine. Pilot hydrogen plants will be launched in 2024 at nuclear power plants, gas production facilities and raw material processing enterprises.
Until 2024, Gazprom will study the use of hydrogen and methane-hydrogen fuel in gas installations (gas turbine engines, gas boilers, etc.) and as a motor fuel in various types of transport.
In 2024, Rosatom Corporation will build an experimental hydrogen-powered site for rail transport.
Prospects far and near
Despite the dynamic development of hydrogen energy projects in rich countries, in other regions the pace of development of new technologies is significantly lower.
According to the forecasts of all global institutions that monitor global energy trends, the share of renewable sources will grow and will not become significant in the short term. While the strongest high-tech economies develop alternative energy, the rest of the world will use more oil, coal and gas due to the global increase in energy consumption.
Experts are confident that in the next one or two decades, the hydrocarbon component will remain dominant.